As international donors sit across the table with different stakeholders in Pakistan, a strange wish has been made. When human conviction dwindles, the wishes get stranger. So is this naïve wish for stability. In Pakistan, a quiet moment is not a presage of stability but the lull before the storm, and these storms are chronic and recurring, much like monsoon rain. As Pakistan anxiously waits for the next episode, we must ask why the never-ending chaos?
Chaos, colloquially, is understood to be disorder and randomness, but from a scientific perspective, chaos is not random at all. Chaos Theory – originally developed by mathematicians and physicists – defines chaos as complex and irregular behavior but nonetheless predictable (at least theoretically). Within this framework, chaos is a characteristic of dynamic non-linear systems. A typical chaotic system is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions, exhibits recurring patterns, and produces sudden changes in the system which cannot be described using immediate history. In recent years, Chaos Theory has been extended to the realm of political science. Consequently, I use it here as a lens to look into Pakistan’s chronic chaos.
Bifurcation Points
In Chaos Theory, the points of sudden change are known as bifurcation points. At a bifurcation point, the system undergoes a dramatic shift in behavior and embarks on a new trajectory. The reason is the accumulated history of interaction between actors. Another property of a bifurcation point is that once it is crossed, the system cannot return to the pre-bifurcation point trajectory. In other words, in a chaotic system, particular courses of action are irreversible.
Looking back at the last two decades, I argue that there are at least three bifurcation points in Pakistan’s political journey. The first was the eighteenth amendment of the constitution in 2010 that has forced new methods of regime change and made state institutions overtly political. The second was the air raid conducted by India across the internationally recognized border in 2019 that emerged as a new challenge to Pakistan’s method of asymmetric war. The third is the recent events of 9th May, the consequences of which will be unveiled in due course of time. All these events have changed the trajectory of the system (both internally and externally), though it may well be too early to predict the path lines. One thing that can be said with certainty is that going back from these is impossible.
Chaos Attractor
The trajectories of a dynamic system tend toward a certain point (or basin) called an attractor. Chaotic behavior is a consequence of a strange attractor (the reverse is not always true). A typical example is a pendulum that is vertically mobile in addition to the usual horizontal motion. In this case, the trajectories are bounded around a chaotic attractor but never repeat themselves (for example see Lorenz attractor). In short, chaotic systems remain unpredictable and irregular even when in a “resting state”.
In Pakistan, we see that the so-called pillars of stability are chaotic attractors at best. Though they attract the pathways of the system, they are in no way in control and the system continues to swirl in chaos. As with any chaotic system, the behavior seems to be regular and irregular at the same time, only dependent on one’s perspective. Another regime change, another engineered election, another fiscal and/or monetary crisis, another foreign policy debacle; it all seems repeating, but it is not. The system continues to dance at the edge of a cliff (yet another) with a tectonic shift always waiting to happen. At each instance, we want to believe that it will not get worse, and at each instance, we are proven wrong. But we should ask ourselves, how do we get out of the chaos?
Pakistan Elections – To Be, Or Not To Be – Invisiblites
Initial Conditions
At the heart of the Chaos Theory is the sensitivity to the initial conditions. This is metaphorically known as the Butterfly Effect, which means that mere flapping of butterfly wings can cause a tornado. In other words, a small change (perturbation) in the initial conditions can produce dramatically different trajectories. The idea is best captured in the following proverb.
For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the message was lost.
For want of a message the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
To get out of the chaos, Pakistan must review its initial conditions. Pakistan’s restrictive ideology and obsession with its neighbor keep it under constant paranoia and short-sightedness. The power mechanism inherited from the colonial masters continues to strangulate the society and the highly skewed State-citizen relationship continues to reinforce the Master-Slave bonds across all divides. These phenomena combine to produce policies like strategic depth and asymmetric warfare on the external front and controlled democracy and State corporatism on the internal front.
Like every other state (by virtue of its existence), the Pakistani state too wants to uphold the status quo and block every path that could potentially lead to a fundamental change, but the problem for Pakistan is that it is a country stuck in chronic chaos. This strategy has only made matters worse and will yield the same result (if not worse) every time it is repeated. State officials are, and will always be, bounded by the power mechanism, inadvertently trying their best to serve the chaos (system). It is only those who are not benefited by the system in any way who can come up with meaningful alternatives. Therefore, it is imperative for the Pakistani state to facilitate (if not then at least tolerate) open dialogue and those challenging long-held beliefs. Ultimately, Pakistan is not a country short on zeal and resources, but a country short on ideas.
[Shiraz Gulraiz is the Founding Editor of Invisiblites. He holds a Ph.D. from The University of Texas at Austin.]