By Aqib Abbasi for Invisiblites
The geopolitical landscape of South Asia is complicated with complex rivalries, shifts in alliances, and historical enmities. Amid this, Bangladesh and Pakistan relations have reached a critical crossroads. The recent diplomatic reengagements have huge importance, creating opportunities for Pakistan to mend ties following Sheikh Hasina’s ouster in August 2024. This reengagement is clearly evident in military and economic cooperation, signaling a policy shift and pragmatic thaw after a long strain.
Unresolved grievances
Although diplomatic changes have opened various economic and strategic avenues, historical unresolved grievances continue to shape these relations. Bangladesh views 1971 as a war of liberation, demanding justice and an apology from Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan sees it as a tragic separation and a betrayal, influenced by external factors and Indian meddling. Post 1971, relations were primarily shaped by cautious recognition, but never fully developed and deteriorated drastically during Hasina’s rule (2009-2024). The historical grievances resulted in Bangladesh’s alignment with India on various platforms, including security infrastructure and regional forums like SAARC. These scenarios prompted Pakistan to counterbalance India’s rising influence in the region. Pakistan, facing regional isolations saw Indian influence as containment, which gave rise to the motivation to reestablish ties with Bangladesh, offsetting India’s growing regional influence.
Rebalancing Act
Moreover, the global and regional context further complicates the relations frameworks between the two countries. Pakistan strengthened relations with China through CEPEC investments, giving legitimacy to BRI throughout the region. On the other hand, Bangladesh followed a clearer approach, balancing relations with both India and China. However, post-Hasina’s fall, Bangladesh is slowly embedding itself in the Chinese orbit. The recent re-engagement of diplomatic visits, trade resumption (e.g., 27 % trade surge post-ouster), and military talks have emerged as a pragmatic response to Indian influence and Bangladesh’s strategic vulnerabilities.
Challenges and Opportunities
Several factors challenge the recent diplomatic shift. Bangladesh’s demand for Pakistan’s war crimes trials is a significant impediment. Nevertheless, cooperation on shared security and maritime affairs offers an opportunity for both nations to bury the past and move ahead. On the other hand, Pakistan’s reengagement policy towards Bangladesh poses a challenge to India’s regional hegemony ambitions, fearing encirclement. India can retaliate by direct involvement or through proxies to sabotage the fragile relationship.
Although the domestic political situation shows some distrust, through symbolic gestures, i.e., announcing support for post-Hasina’s government, track II diplomacy and people-to-people contacts, both countries are adopting a pragmatic foreign policy to address the historical grievances. Additionally, Pakistan’s foreign policy focuses on curbing Indian dominance in the region through strategic realignment. On the other hand, Bangladesh is adopting the hedging approach. The role of China in addressing these challenges is pivotal, where both countries follow the BRI-aligned policies with notable success in economic gains. Bangladesh is engaging with Pakistan and China through trilateral agreements, e.g. 2025 Kunming dialogue. Moreover, Yunus’s anti-India stance has also helped to mend the relations, but there are only short-term gains from the diplomatic visits. With general elections coming up in Bangladesh, there is uncertainty and indecisiveness.
Final Remarks
Post-Hasina reengagement has paved the way to overcome past grievances, but with moderate success in trade and security dynamics. To build mutual trust, Pakistan must establish a joint reconciliation commission, develop security policies through a multilateral platform, initiate people-to-people exchange, and support a third-party mediator to balance India’s influence.
Overall, the recent developments offer an opportunity to engage in a way that prioritizes mutual trust and strategic and economic benefits. Also, both countries can overcome historical enmities through dialogue and diplomacy. However, uncertainty looms due to the possible reversal of the policies post-elections. The regional power competition also plays a pivotal role in the unpredictability of the relations, which requires balancing complex external influences. The adoption of a forward-oriented policy can lead to a stronger realignment for bilateral relations and a more stable South Asia.
Aqib Abbasi is an undergraduate student at the National Defence University (NDU), Islamabad.
Photo credit: ChatGPT