By Ahsan Ullah Tareen for Invisiblites
Introduction: A Global Issue in Disguise
The Kashmir issue has always been considered a regional or bilateral issue by the global north, and that is why this issue has persisted. But in reality, the Kashmir issue has the potential to cause a global catastrophe. The consequences of this issue, if not solved, are going to be global.
The Strategic Importance of Water
Kashmir is the main water source of two nuclear powers that share a border of more than 2000 miles. In Pakistan, this water contributes to the irrigation of 15 million hectares of land, on which the 68% rural population is dependent. The Indus water originates from the Indian part of Kashmir and then enters Pakistan; 90% of Pakistan’s agriculture is dependent on these rivers.
The dependence of Pakistan on Kashmir to such an extent makes it a matter of ‘no compromise’, while on the other hand, India uses these waters as leverage against Pakistan. Kashmir has always been the cause of military confrontation between the two nations and will always be until its resolution. Having such a foundational cause for animosity will never allow a friendly foreign policy.
The Catastrophic Risk of Nuclear War
This issue needs to be solved not only for the good of the two nations or their 1.75B population, but for the good of the entire world or even for the survival of the human race. If Pakistan and India were to confront each other in a full-fledged war, and, due to the asymmetry in their military capabilities, it is quite likely that their nuclear arsenal will be used.
According to some studies, if these both nations use 100-150 nukes against each other, this will have catastrophic effects on the global environment with a decrease in global temperature of 2-5° C and 15-30% decrease in rainfall drops, along with the release of 5-17 million tons of black carbon (soot) covering the sunlight by 20-25%, causing a nuclear winter which will last for at least 5-10 years. This is, let alone the immediate deaths of 50-125 million people in the first week, and millions injured, and billions to be affected globally due to crop failure or radiation in the atmosphere. The ozone layer will also be damaged.
Failure of the International Community
The will Pakistan and India have shown over the decades to protect or annex Kashmir, along with the weapons they possess, makes it a clear global issue. Both countries are not compromising on the issue and are not even trying to reach terms acceptable to both. The UNO has also turned a blind eye towards this issue; resolutions for a referendum have been passed in the past but were never implemented. The US, China & Russia have also never tried to solve it; rather, they have always exploited this issue for their benefits by vetoing in favor of their ally.
The Path to a Permanent Solution
The global institutions and major powers need to understand what’s at stake here. This issue requires active intervention and a permanent solution, implemented and secured by global institutions and powers. The solution here shall not be based on prior models, where a referendum is to be held and Kashmir is to become part of either India or Pakistan. Because Kashmir is vital to both states, its control by one state gives it leverage over the other and will ultimately lead to the conflict described above.
The Case for an Independent Kashmir
The most pragmatic approach for the solution of this issue is an independent/autonomous state of Kashmir. The people of Kashmir have been manipulated from the beginning to an extent that they don’t have clear agendas or genuine political leadership. That’s why the issue of regional security and global catastrophe cannot be decided by a referendum of people who have been suppressed, deprived, and did not evolve through the political process. In this way, both Pakistan and India will have to lobby for the water they need, and the source of the animosity between the two regional military powers will be removed. Pakistan and India can then move towards a friendly foreign policy, which would benefit the whole region.
Ahsan Ullah Tareen is a student of BR-IR at BUITEMS Quetta.
Photo Credits: Microsoft Copilot
Best analysis Ever. This article did well in highlighting the sensitivity and importance of the Kashmir dispute.
I liked your idea of making Kashmir an autonomous state to make peace. But there is confusion over the fact that new state’s government will be pro-pakistani or Pro-Indian. what do you suggest if Kashmir go into the custody of United Nations like Masjid e aqsa region is held by them.
It is an well-known fact that the water from Kashmir is vital for both Pakistan and india. Kashmiri government – whether pro-pakistani or pro-indian – recognizes the consequences of halting the flow of water to either of their nuclear-armed neighbors, although they may use it as an leverage to get concessions for Kashmir’s interest. Now bringing this back to our real concern: the prevention of direct confrontation between the Pakistan and India, that combinedly have the nuclear arsenal to challenge the global peace. The independent state of Kashmir may lead to problems with any if its neighbors but it for sure will prevent this catastrophe.
i really like the lens with which this issue has been approached, but dont you think that emergence of kashmir as a seprate state will worsen the situation even more. because both India and pakistan will try to intervene or at the very least influence internal politics of kashmir to get maximum benefit for their own . and as far as UN has concerned we have seen countries by passing united nations for pursuing their own national interest, and different in openions of major powers like russia, china, and usa will also make this more complex