By Naqibullah Mashwani for Invisiblites
The Pahalgam attack in Jammu & Kashmir is claimed by “The Resistance Front”, was one of the deadliest attacks in the history of India after the 2008 Mumbai attack. The attack sparked clashes between India and Pakistan as India blamed its neighbor for being the mastermind. Pakistan urged India to have an open investigation and demanded concrete evidence. Nothing of that sort happened, but the attack led to a few surprising incidents and changed the dynamics of South Asia politically, militarily, economically and diplomatically.
A few questions need to be asked: why the US intervened, how this attack opened a new chapter between India and the Afghan Taliban, what led China to call a trilateral conference with Pakistan and Afghanistan, and how Pakistan and Afghanistan enhanced the diplomatic ties from Chargé d’affaires to the ambassador level.
The Pahalgam attack coincided with the American Vice President Vance’s four-day visit to India. When India launched a “surprise” attack, Pakistan retaliated in kind, and the precarious journey up the escalation ladder began. Pakistan closed its airspace for Indian flightsbut did not stop issuing visas to Sikhs. This politically tricky act by Pakistan and the oppression of minorities in India made the famous leader of the Sikh community to back Pakistan publicly and admit that Pakistan is more reliable than India.
Pakistan started a global diplomatic campaign and, to the utter surprise of the Indians, managed to secure a meeting with President Trump. The United States, which initially declared “it is none of our business”, later intervened and installed a quick ceasefire when Pakistan claimed to have shot few Indian drones and fighter jets, including French Rafale using Chinese J-10C and JF-17 Thunder, which was an indirect victory of the Chinese technology. The drones sent by India were identified to be Israeli-made Harop, and the most advanced Rafale jets were French technology, which lost its stock by 7pc.
This was not the only reason why the US intervened, but one of several, as the credibility of Western technology went down and the Chinese proved to be reliable. Nonetheless, the US played a key role in bringing both nuclear states to a quick ceasefire and took not only the credit but also showed itself to be a “champion of diplomacy and peace”. They also declared the Resistance Front as a foreign terrorist organisation, which claimed the Pahalgam attack and later denied any involvement.
India, after the fall of Kabul, again realized how essential it is to have a regional alliance and support, especially from Afghanistan. The foreign minister of India had a telephonic conversation with the foreign minister of the Taliban for the first time. This conversation was not only to condemn the Pahalgam attack, but to deny the threat reported in Pakistani media that a missile fired by India exploded in Afghanistan. After this conversation, for the first time in the past four years, the announcement that India will again start issuing visas to Afghan citizens was not surprising. The Indian government also vowed to complete the unfinished projects in Afghanistan, enhance trade, and develop the Chabahar port in Iran.
China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan had a trilateral informal meeting in Beijing on May 21 to discuss regional stability, cooperation, and counter terrorism was a strategic need to involve the Taliban and expand CPEC to Afghanistan and connect it with Central Asian States. Immediately after this meeting, Pakistan enhanced diplomatic ties with the Taliban to a higher level from Chargé d’affaires to the ambassador level to build trust and improve counter insurgency inside Pakistan, which is a real barrier for the Belt and Road Initiative. This was followed by Russia’s acceptance of the Taliban government.
The Pahalgam attack not only shifted and changed the dynamics of South Asia politically, militarily, and diplomatically, but also gave birth to a new militant group, “Tahreek-e-Taliban Kashmir”. The launch of such a militant group will strengthen the credibility of Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and will keep the insurgencies alive in Pakistan. Any operation by TTK for the independence of Kashmir will put the security of both India and Pakistan at stake. The Afghan Taliban will be turned into political stakeholders of Afghanistan, and TTP will be the dominant group in South Asia. This group may become an umbrella and give birth to many more, such as Tahreek-e-Taliban Balochistan (TTB).
The author is associated with The University of Lahore, is a Research Fellow at Displaced International, Founder and President of International Afghan Students’ Association (IASA), and member of World Beyond War, Afghanistan-Chapter. The author can be contacted at naqeebmashwani@gmail.com.
Photo Credits: Microsoft Copilot