Make no mistake – Narendra Modi is here to stay, and this is not an analysis of his performance. All things, good or bad, end, and someday will Modi’s premiership, but Modi’s shadow will live on. BJP, on the other hand, will need to reinvent itself with its biggest star exiting the scene. However it turns out, the post-Modi scenario will have its demons.
BJP’s Ideological Pursuits
There is always a downside to achieving one’s dream. The moment of attainment is also the moment of consciousness – what next it asks. Since its inception, BJP’s rallying cry has been Ram Mandir. The temple embodied Bhajpa’s political ideology in letter and spirit. The lines were drawn, and the cadre stomped ahead with saffron-colored clarity. Following decades of struggle, the realization came earlier this year. After the revocation of Article 370 and the Citizenship Amendment Act, it was about time. But here lies the dilemma, how can the BJP keep the ideological flame burning? Its ideological progenitor, RSS, seems to be short on ideas as well. As noted by Shekhar Gupta, it is more focused on applauding from the sidelines instead of setting policy goals. The only way forward for BJP and RSS will be to create new fronts and find new missions.
Rahul Gandhi’s Challenge
Amidst years of ridicule and political defeats at the hands of the BJP, Rahul Gandhi has slowly evolved Congress’ strategy. He is readying his party for the post-Modi era and the challenge he is mounting is substantial. After a tactful rebranding and perhaps a genuine change of heart, he has become the captain of the ideological anti-RSS. Post Bharat Jodo Yatra, the man made an uncharacteristic but fascinating comment, “I let go of Rahul Gandhi years ago … He is in your mind, not mine”, he declared. As Rahul Gandhi conquers the center-left of the ideological spectrum, the only direction for the BJP and RSS is further right. If they fail to do so, their unparalleled consolidation of the Hindu vote will be up for grabs.
Modi’s Successor
In present-day India, the student (Modi) leads, and the guru (RSS) follows. Whether the equation changes in the post-Modi era or not, Modi’s successor will undoubtedly have huge boots to fill in. A genius at political marketing, Modi has projected himself as a messiah for his followers – at times as an ascetic meditating in the wilderness, at times as a warrior fighting the demons with a “56 inches chest”. With the BJP in pursuit of new endeavors and most probably sliding further to the right, mere copying Modi will not be enough for his successor. One option for the successor and BJP/RSS will be to contrast each other. If the new leader moves right, the party moves left, or vice-versa. While this is not impossible, it seems improbable given BJP’s game plan since its inception. With a political landscape moving further to the right and a leader desperate to outdo their predecessor, India could be moving towards serious upheavals, both on the external and internal fronts.
Dirty Hands of the State – Invisiblites
Economy
Modi’s love for big money is not hidden and his economic policy goes against RSS’s grain. The long-term effects of his policies can always be argued upon but one has to agree that prima facie, his short-term handling of the economy has been neat and slick. On the contrary, BJP’s economic ideology is marked by protectionism, populism, and an aversion to consumerism. For now, it seems that the BJP has swallowed the bitter pill of liberalization, but will it continue in the post-Modi era? The penchant for massive infrastructure projects does not go hand in hand with protectionist instincts. While the world expects India to lead global growth, only India itself can create reasons to falter.
Foreign Policy
Modi’s foreign policy has been largely cautious, especially vis-à-vis China. Whether India conceded land or not, Modi knows when to take a step back – or perhaps two. While China may or may not test Modi’s successor, Pakistan surely will given its policy of asymmetric warfare and its military’s tarnishing image in front of an increasingly restless populace. The loving neighbors could be back to a February 2019 kind of situation. If that happens (and hopefully it does not), how Modi’s successor responds will shape the region’s future.
Indians will miss the bear hugs, the concert rallies abroad, the yoga poses, and the cute interviews. Modi will leave a lot behind, and his successor will have to carry the load. For a lot of Indians, the expectations will be as big as the standing Vallabhbhai Patel in Gujrat. Whoever succeeds Modi will be closely watched by Lord Ram from Ayodhya.
[Shiraz Gulraiz is the Founding Editor of Invisiblites. He holds a Ph.D. from The University of Texas at Austin.]
The article was written before India’s 2024 elections.
Photo credits: Wikimedia Commons.